Risk of unilateral default/devaluation (crude but intriguing)

Indicator
Change between 2009 and 2010, %
variable
proxy
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
a
Growth outlook
real-effective exchange rate*
-0.3
-6.9
-3.6
-2.5
-2.7
b
Primary budget
primary budget/GDP**
6.3
-2.0
0.1
2.0
2.4
c
Continent liabilities
house prices***
-4.3
-15
-0.3
1.6
-1.0
d
Political pressure
unemployment rate**
3.0
1.1
0.4
0.8
1.7
Score
b+c-d-a (low=more risk)
-0.7
-11.2
3
5.3
2.4
Rank
1=highest risk
2
1
4
5
3

source: Oxford Analytica
* CPI-based ** change in percentage points *** 2010Q3 or latest
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