Monthly Archives: March 2011

Framework for understanding the euro-area crisis

Consider the travails of the euro-area in terms of the macroeconomic policy trilemma (1/). Here is the framework: i. Balance of payments trouble when external credit dries up (sudden stop) ==> solvency threat via banking system and sovereign debt via … Continue reading

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Framework for understanding the euro-area crisis

As a macro framework for analysis, consider the travails of the euro-area in terms of the macroeconomic policy trilemma (1/). Here is the framework: i. Balance of payments trouble when external credit dries up (sudden stop) ==> solvency threat via … Continue reading

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Intelligence squared debate: On the role of government in a recession.

The website is http://intelligencesquaredus.org/. Nouriel Roubini comes out very well in this. Thank God he is on this panel. Laura Tyson engages with the supply-siders on their own terms — “the government must balance its books, just like households do” (I … Continue reading

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Update on euro-area periphery adjustment

Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Inflation (HICP)Feb 2011 4.2 0.9 2.1 3.5 3.4 Labour costs2010q4 -6.6 -3.1 1.8 4.2* -0.8 REER (BIS)Jan 2011 -0.8 -5.9 -4.5 -1.5 -2.6 sources: Eurostat; national authorities. all figures are percent y/y* 2011q1. Note:euro (vs … Continue reading

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USA risk: Alert – Fed could surprise markets with further easing in 2011

My article on the prospect of an unexpected Fed easing in 2011H2 is now available on the EIU ViewsWire.

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